With the delivery of a series of new ships, it is expected that more ships will be put into operation by 2025. Intermodal, a shipbuilding brokerage company, stated in its latest weekly report that as we enter 2025, the dry bulk and tanker transportation markets will face more uncertainty. Global geopolitical tensions have intensified market volatility, affecting current market sentiment. The new tariffs and sanctions that US President Trump may impose will further disrupt the supply chain and exacerbate market uncertainty. In this volatile situation, the supply of transportation capacity is the only relatively stable factor.
According to Yiannis Parganas, head of research at Intermodal, from the perspective of the dry bulk shipping market, it is expected that 541 new ships will be put into operation by 2025, with a total capacity of 38.33 million deadweight tons. Compared to the delivery volume in 2024, there has been an increase of 51 vessels with a carrying capacity of 4.49 million tons. This will be the year with the highest delivery volume since 2016 and the largest delivery capacity since 2021. In terms of specific ship types, the dry bulk carriers to be delivered in 2025 include 40 Cape of Good Hope ships, 15 Super Panamax ships, 121 Camsar/Panamax ships, and 196 Super Handy/Handy ships. It should be pointed out that by 2025, 146 handy ships with a deadweight tonnage exceeding 20000 will be put into operation.
From the perspective of the oil tanker transportation market, it is expected to deliver 43 original oil tankers with a total capacity of 7.15 million deadweight tons by 2025. Compared to delivering only 17 ships with a deadweight tonnage of 2.52 million in 2024 (the lowest on record), there is a significant increase. Despite the year-on-year increase, 2025 will be the second lowest delivery year since 2015 in terms of transportation capacity, and the lowest year since 2015 in terms of ship quantity. Specifically, it is expected to deliver 5 very large crude oil tankers (VLCCs), 30 Suezmax tankers, and 8 Aframax tankers by 2025. Among them, only the delivery volume of Suezmax tankers exceeded its five-year average of 22 ships.
The market for finished oil tankers presents a completely different picture. By 2025, it is expected that 179 finished oil tankers with a deadweight tonnage exceeding 10000 will be put into operation, with a total capacity of 12.09 million deadweight tons. Compared to the 49 ships with a deadweight capacity of 3.37 million tons delivered in 2024, there has been a significant increase. In terms of transportation capacity, 2024 will be the year with the lowest delivery volume of finished oil tankers since 2001, and 2025 will set a record for the
highest delivery volume since 2009.
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