According to a survey conducted by Ship&Bunker and consulting firm 2050 Maritime Energy on 17 major global hub marine fuel markets, global marine fuel sales increased by 1.9% year-on-year and 3.6% month on month in the second quarter of this year. The turbulent situation in the Red Sea leading to the diversion of ships is the main factor driving sales growth.

Adrian Tolson of 2050 Maritime Energy pointed out that the demand in the second quarter reflects that the market is still affected by the limited transit volume through the Suez Canal. Despite continuous adjustments in routes and schedules, the Red Sea crisis still forces most ships to detour around the southernmost Cape of Good Hope in Africa. Due to limited supply along the African coastline, this move not only supports strong demand in the Canary Islands, but also supports fuel sales in major freight destinations such as Singapore, Gibraltar, and New York.

Guido Cardullo, the head of ocean energy at Fratelli Cosulich, an Italian marine fuel company, believes that Singapore is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Red Sea crisis, which indirectly reflects the strength of Singapore's fuel market. This year, the region is expected to reach a historic high in its fuel sales.

As the duration of the Houthi armed attack prolongs, market participants have developed detailed plans on how to respond to the attack.

Guido Cardullo added that all ports have been affected by the decrease in the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal, but there are differences in the demand for ship fuel in different regions. The interruption of the Suez Canal has led to a significant increase in the number of container ships docking at Singapore ports, increasing pressure and intensifying market competition

The outlook still remains uncertain
As of now, there is no sign of slowing down the attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, which means that the demand for fuel transferred from these areas may still change for the rest of this year. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that Gaza may quickly reach a ceasefire agreement to end the conflict. At present, the rapid resumption of normal transit through the Panama Canal may alleviate the pressure on the container market and reduce the demand for marine fuel.

Adrian Tolson said, "Global demand for marine fuel will shrink in 2024, but this is not the reality. Overall, the development for the rest of this year should remain largely consistent with previous years, and fuel demand will gradually rationalize.

The areas covered by this survey include: Singapore, New York, Los Angeles/Long Beach, the Gulf of America, Panama, the Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp (ARA) hub, the Strait of Gibraltar, Türkiye, the Canary Islands, West Africa, South Africa, Russia, Fuchaila, South Korea, Japan, as well as Zhoushan and Hong Kong in China.