As of November 16th, the Baltic Composite Freight Index (BDI) closed at 1758 points, an increase of 296 points or 20.25% compared to November 3rd. The Capesize Index BCI increased by 531 points, or 24.89%, while the Panama Index increased by 352 points, or 24.31%.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2023, China's daily average crude steel production was 2.5513 million tons, a decrease of 3.8% month on month, setting a new low since the beginning of this year. Amidst the slowing pace of demand, some steel mills have begun to undergo maintenance. Coupled with the increasingly cold weather and safety and environmental requirements, the trend of capacity reduction has strengthened, and iron ore port inventory has slowly rebounded. China's iron ore demand is weak and stable, but long-term market confidence is still sufficient. Iron ore futures are currently at a high level, but supply side shipments have slowed down. According to Mysteel data, the total global iron ore shipment from November 6th to November 12th was 26.216 million tons, a decrease of 4.474 million tons compared to the previous month. Among them, 13.683 million tons were sent from Australia to China, a decrease of 828000 tons compared to the previous month.


In terms of coal, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's raw coal production in October was 388.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared to September, but still an increase of 3.8% compared to the same period last year. Safety accidents have slowed down the pace of production. In the international market, from January to October 2023, Indonesia's export volume of thermal coal exceeded 413 million tons, reaching a new high, consolidating its position as the largest exporter of high emission thermal fuels. According to Kpler's data, from January to October this year, Indonesia's share in global thermal coal exports exceeded 50% for the first time, indicating that Indonesia has successfully seized share from its competitors.


The primary factor contributing to the growth of Indonesian market share is the relatively low price of Indonesian coal compared to high-quality coal from competitors such as Australia. And for important consumer countries such as China and India, Indonesia's freight costs and transportation time are almost only half that of Australia, so it has a significant advantage. Currently, it is winter in the northern hemisphere, and Indonesian coal exports are expected to continue to experience growth.


In the grain market, according to Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, China Grain Reserve Management Group purchased 600000 tons of soybeans from the United States on November 7, which is expected to be delivered between December and March next year. If confirmed, this purchase will be the maximum daily purchase volume since the end of July. Recently, the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States further clarified the shared responsibility of China and the United States as major powers, forming a "San Francisco Vision" for the future. The prospects for healthy, stable, and sustainable development between the two countries in the future will help promote more active economic and trade exchanges between China and the United States.