Since 2023, the prices of new ships have continued to rise. The current Clarkson New Ship Price Index is about 176 points, an 8% increase from the beginning of 2023, and has reached its highest level since 2009. New ship prices are expected to continue to rise in 2024, mainly due to the following factors:


The global new shipbuilding market will continue to maintain high activity supported by updated demand. On the one hand, during the period from 2008 to 2022, although the sea freight volume and sea freight turnover of oil and bulk transportation maintained a growth trend, they were far behind the growth rate of global fleet ownership. The overall shipping market still showed a situation of overcapacity, and even considering the decrease in fleet speed, the role of the decrease in effective capacity supply model driving the release of new shipbuilding demand is expected to be limited; With the continuous acceleration of the clean transformation of global energy consumption, the demand for LNG ships, PCC and other markets continues to be released, which will become an important driving force for the generation of new demand. On the other hand, some old ships are about to reach the age of dismantling, and the increasingly strict international maritime rules and regulations, as well as the upcoming shipping carbon tax, have further increased the demand for updates brought about by accelerated ship dismantling.


The tight supply of production capacity and the prominent characteristics of oligopoly competition have reduced the space for shipowners to choose shipyards, creating a certain bargaining space for shipyards. Currently, the number of active shipyards worldwide (with at least one handheld order of over 20000 deadweight tons) continues to decline, dropping from a peak of 321 in 2008 to the current 148, less than half of the peak period. Shipyards are holding full orders, resulting in a decrease in shipbuilding capacity supply. In the past two years, shipyards have gradually restarted production capacity, but it is difficult to significantly affect the market in the short term. In addition, according to Clarkson's statistics, the top ten shipbuilding groups in the world hold orders in deadweight tons, accounting for 43%, and the top twenty shipyards hold orders in deadweight tons, accounting for 58%. Market competition has shifted from country to country to competition between groups, shipyards, and shipyards. The characteristics of monopolistic competition have emerged, and industry concentration is increasing, providing shipyards with certain price negotiation space.


The price of steel, supply of supporting equipment, and labor costs determine that shipbuilding costs are easy to rise but difficult to fall. According to Clarkson's statistics, the average price of 20mm ship plates in China has been 4235 yuan/ton since the beginning of this year, a decrease of 21% compared to the average price in 2021, but still 11% higher than the average level of the past 10 years. With the gradual recovery of the global economy and the expected end of the interest rate hike cycle, the possibility of a significant short-term decline in raw material prices such as coke and iron ore is relatively small; Since 2021, the global new shipbuilding market has maintained a high momentum, and the supply of corresponding supporting equipment has become insufficient. Due to constraints on the production capacity supply of supporting manufacturers, the supply of supporting equipment is not timely, and the market price of supporting equipment has increased. With the increasingly strict international mandatory emission reduction policies, more and more ships are adopting green and low-carbon power technology, and equipment upgrades and replacements are driving up the cost of ship procurement; At present, the salary level of skilled workers in domestic shipyards is relatively low compared to Japan and South Korea. The demand for skilled workers in other industries such as wind power has increased, and the salary treatment is relatively high, which has driven up the labor costs of shipyards. Due to the severe shortage of aging workers in Japan and South Korea, it is necessary to excavate labor from overseas and invest more in labor costs.