Following the latest retail sales data from the United States that has just been released, it falls short of expectations. The analysis is as follows:

1. Just now, the United States Department of Commerce announced that retail sales in June were 689.5 billion US dollars, up 0.2% month on month, less than the expected value of 0.5%. Retail sales in June increased 1.5% year on year.

2. The main driving force of the US economy comes from consumers, with consumer spending accounting for over 60% of GDP, and retail sales are considered an important indicator of consumer spending. In terms of sub items, compared to the previous month, grocery stores and e-commerce (non physical store retailers) contributed the largest increase in retail sales, increasing by 2.0% and 1.9% respectively compared to May. Furniture and home furnishings also performed well, with a month on month increase of 1.4%; The sales of gas stations decreased by 1.4% compared to May. On a year-on-year basis, online sales performed the best, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4%, followed by the catering industry, which is also the only service category in the report, with sales increasing by 8.4% year-on-year; Gas station sales have plummeted by 22.7% compared to June last year, making it the sector with the largest decline. Reflects a shift in consumer spending habits and indicates weakness in certain areas of the US economy.

3. Although June sales data fell short of expectations, US consumer spending remained resilient. As inflation subsides, consumers' purchasing power seems to be gradually increasing. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, retail sales increased by 0.6% in June. The data for May showed a slight upward revision, indicating a 0.3% increase in these so-called core retail sales, instead of the 0.2% previously reported. The core retail sales are most in line with the consumer spending component of GDP. The steady growth in June and the upward revision of core retail sales in May indicate that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, continued to grow in the previous quarter. However, this speed may be lower than the speed in the first quarter.

4. We can see from the lag data of front-end consumption, foreign trade orders, and container cargo volume mismatch that we are still in the process of de inventorying, and inventory levels are still the focus of our monitoring and prediction.

5. As for the short-term freight rate of the US line, the overall freight capacity of the US line fell by 12.1% year on year due to the shipping company's adjustment of the capacity control class. In addition, the 13 day strike at Upper Canada's docks also affected the effective supply of freight capacity for trans Pacific routes, which played a supporting role in the rise and fall of freight rates.

6. As for the European route, which claims to see a significant price increase in August, I personally feel that the current support is insufficient. The newly launched container ships exceeding 24000 TEU are all delivering to the European route, which brings continuous overcapacity pressure to the Asia Europe route. According to third-party data, the total transportation capacity of the European route increased by 7.6% year-on-year, and further disagreements are expected in the coming months.



7. If the biggest focus of demand is on front-end consumption and the process of destocking, then the focus of the supply side of transportation capacity is on the largest scale in history, which will dominate the future trend due to the influx of orders and the limitation of carbon neutrality on effective transportation capacity.