Normalized growth of China's economy, with a rebound in the maritime market


As of June 15th, the Baltic Composite Freight Index (BDI) closed at 1094 points, up 175 points or 19.04% from June 2nd. The Capesize Index BCI rose 483 points, or 43.28%, and the Panamax Index rose 154 points, or 14.95%.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China imported a total of 96.175 million tons of iron ore sand and concentrate in May, with a cumulative increase of 7.7% from January to May compared to the same period last year. Similar to the growth trend of iron ore imports, there is also crude steel production. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel production from January to May was 444.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.


On June 15th, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said: "Due to last year's low base, the economic growth in the second quarter was significantly faster than that in the first quarter. In the third and fourth quarters, as the base increases, the economic operation will return to a normal level of growth. From the perspective of the whole year, there is a lot of strong support for the economy to achieve the expected development goals for the whole year. Although it is currently seen that the macroeconomic data in May is weaker than expected and faces certain pressure, However, the growth in iron ore imports and crude steel production indicates stable demand from Chinese steel mills and is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, forming a positive support for the freight rates of iron ore routes. The end of June is the fiscal year deadline for Australian mining giants BHP and FMG, and the iron ore shipment volume is expected to maintain a high level in the next half month.


In terms of coal, China imported 39.584 million tons of coal and lignite in May, although there was a slight decrease compared to the previous month, the cumulative increase from January to May was 89.6% compared to the same period last year. According to Reinitiv ship tracking data, Indonesia remains China's largest coal supplier, accounting for 55.2% of China's imports, with coal imports from Indonesia increasing by 83.7%. Russia is the second largest supplier, accounting for 23.4%, with imports from Russia increasing by 117.7%. Australia is currently the third largest supplier, accounting for 10.4%.


In recent times, the high-temperature climate in the northern hemisphere has reappeared, with record high temperatures in Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and other places. The hot weather has led to an increase in the load on the power system. In addition to increasing domestic production efforts, the demand for imported coal and natural gas from various countries may correspondingly increase.



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