US retailers predict that imports will decline significantly by at least next spring. This Wednesday said that the normal winter calm period for US line will be particularly obvious in the coming months, with demand accelerating.

1. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in the Global Port Tracking in December: "The volume of imported container cargo at the ports we cover has decreased significantly, and it will further decline to a level that has not been seen for some time in the next six months."! The Global Port Tracking is released monthly by the American Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, tracking the import volume through 12 major ports in the United States.


2. The December report further continued the downward trend of the U.S. import forecast for 2023, and the decline of the demand forecast continued to deteriorate. The latest estimate shows that the imports in December 2022 will be 7.2% lower than that in December 2021. It is now estimated that the imports in January will be 8.8% lower than that in January 2022, while the previous estimate was 8.4% lower. Imports in February are expected to decline by 20.9% year on year, compared with the previous estimate of 19.1%. Imports in March are now expected to decline by 18.6%, compared with the previous estimate of 15.1%. It is estimated that the imports in April will decline by 13.8% year on year; This is a preliminary forecast!



3. According to PIERS data, compared with the same period last year, the US imports from Asia actually decreased by 4.6% in July, 1% in August, 27.8% in September and 16% in October.



4. The high inventory of American and European enterprises, coupled with the slowing demand, will break the traditional situation of shipping before the Spring Festival holidays. At present, there is little sign of an increase in bookings.



5. The assistant vice president in charge of product marketing of logistics software supplier e2open said, "We can safely say that the orders before the Spring Festival are about 25% lower than the same period last year.".



6. According to the latest data of container trade statistics highlighted by Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, the sharp drop in demand caused by inventory correction intensified in October. After the global demand measured by standard containers dropped 8% in September, it fell 9.3% year-on-year in October. It can be said that macro is a grain of sand, and it is a mountain change for companies and individuals.



7. Nerijus Poskus, global head of Flexport shipping, said that according to the business of freight forwarders and the news Flexport heard from shipping companies, the demand did not increase before the Spring Festival and New Year's Day. "Demand may recover in two weeks, but if we can't see this, it means that the traditional peak season of the Spring Festival has passed."



8. Demand in Europe worsened even more. The supply chain manager of a European retailer said this week, "Consumer demand is at the bottom and inventories are very high.". "No one with a clear mind predicted that there would be any obvious panic buying before the Chinese New Year. The volume of goods may be higher than usual, but it is completely different from what we saw in the delivery period before the Spring Festival. The demand may remain low until summer“



9. Unleashed, an inventory management software provider, pointed out in its manufacturer's health inspection report in November that due to supply chain problems, the inventory of British clothing and fashion enterprises increased by 57% compared with that before the epidemic. Clothing manufacturers reported that their overall profitability declined due to the impact of holding more inventory.



10. John Garratt, chief financial officer of Dollar General, an American retailer, clearly pointed out the high holding cost of excess inventory in the recent third quarter telephone financial report meeting. As of the end of the third quarter, the commodity inventory was 7.1 billion US dollars, an overall growth of 34.8%, and an increase of 28.4% by store.



11. Jerome Griffith, CEO of Land's End, said on the third quarter telephone financial report conference of the clothing retailer that the inventory at the end of this quarter was $565 million, compared with $480 million in the same period last year. "The 18% increase in inventory is mainly due to the early receipt of goods in the upcoming autumn and holiday sales seasons, as well as the basic inventory balance in the previous seasons.". He pointed out that retailers would reduce purchases in the coming quarters, adding that he only expected the company's inventory level to return to normal by the end of next summer.